It's not easy being
an economist. To get your degree nowadays, you have to first
become a (second rate) mathematician. Then you start teaching
and half of your students require artificial stimulants during
the lecture on price elasticity. Even at social gatherings, the
burden follows you: The moment your occupation becomes known,
someone inevitably asks for a stock tip, even if your specialty
is 19th-century capital theory.
But for me at least, the single most
frustrating thing about being an economist is that, 200+ years
after its official birth, the field of economics hasn't
convinced the rest of the world about even its most elementary
propositions. That is, most people still think that tariffs make
a country richer, and most people still don't see the connection
between price controls and shortages. I've beaten the former
topic to death lately (1,
2,
3), so
let's look at a recent USA Today story illustrating the
latter.
The
article
(by Steven Komarow) is entitled, "New trial for Iraqis: Soaring
gas prices, long lines." Komarow first paints a bleak picture of
the plight of Iraqi motorists:
At the al-Hurriya gas station in
Baghdad recently, the line was advancing so slowly that some
drivers just pushed their cars along instead of running the
engine and wasting fuel.
Taxi driver Mohammed Khlaif Auwaid,
32, said he had been in line for four hours and guessed it
would be another three hours before he reached the pumps. By
then, he feared, the station will be out of fuel and closed.
"I'm afraid I will not get gas
today," he said.
Anyone who has taken a principles of
economics class — and I don't mean that figuratively, I mean it
quite literally — knows the cause of gas lines, or shortages of
any good: the price is being held artificially low.
MARKET PRICE EQUATES SUPPLY AND
DEMAND
Laissez-faire economists are often
accused of "worshipping" market (or what can be called
"equilibrium" in the present context, though the two are
different) prices. But this is rather misleading. If I oppose
murder, it's not because I worship other people's lives. Or, if
I don't let my ten-year-old neighbor tinker with my car engine,
it's not because I worship its current state. The former case is
simply an implication of my views of justice, and the latter
case follows from my knowledge that the car works fine right
now, and my neighbor's tinkering will only mess it up.
Both aspects lie behind the (natural
rights) libertarian's defense of freely floating market prices.
On the one hand, if one believes in property rights, then it
automatically follows that price controls are immoral. After
all, a price control involves the government using its guns to
prevent owners from swapping their property at a mutually
agreeable price.
But beyond the issue of property
rights, there is also the pragmatic aspect. Simply put, if the
government sets the legal price below the market level, there
will be a shortage; customers will want to buy more units
of the good than suppliers will want to sell. There's no way
around this: The equilibrium price is that which equates the
quantity supplied with the quantity demanded. Left to its own
devices, there is every reason to expect a market will tend
toward the equilibrium price, although of course it will always
be disrupted by changes in the data (supplies, tastes, etc.).
Now one can imagine hypothetical
scenarios where the equilibrium price is indeterminate, i.e.,
cases where there are multiple prices at which quantity supplied
equals quantity demanded. But in the real world it is safe to
say that market prices settle in a zone where (to put it into
economics jargon) demand curves slope downward and supply curves
slope upward. In plain English, I'm saying that if you believe
(a) consumers in the aggregate would buy more total units and
(b) producers would sell fewer total units when the good is
cheaper, then you have just agreed with me that a price ceiling
will cause a shortage in that good.
As I say, this isn't some controversial
point in theoretical economics. The failure of price controls
has been documented (literally)
for a period of thousands of years. For an anecdotal bit of
evidence, my colleague (who worked at a gas station in the
1970s) said that the gas lines disappeared within one week of
the abandonment of price controls. And when I asked what took so
long, he said that the owner didn't immediately raise prices
because of feared public backlash.
IRAQIS GET THE DOUBLE WHAMMY
Now let us return to the article. After
explaining the truly terrible plight of the motorists, will the
USA Today writer wonder why (as
Lew Rockwell did)
the allegedly pro-market US occupation hasn't lifted the price
controls? Not exactly:
Iraqi motorists have been struggling
with long lines for years. But now they face a new indignity
when they finally reach the pump: skyrocketing prices.
For years, Iraqis have enjoyed
subsidized fuel prices, with gasoline costing about 5 cents a
gallon. Last month, prices increased to 27 cents a gallon as
part of a phased plan to remove subsidies and bring prices
into line with other Persian Gulf countries.
It's still cheap, even by Middle East
standards, but not to people who for generations have grown
accustomed to nearly free petrol.
This is rather amusing, unless you're
an economist, in which case it's infuriating. For an analogy,
imagine a pediatrician reading that Iraqi children are coming
down with measles at horrendous rates, and to top it all off
they now have to endure vaccinations. (Those needles hurt!)
Now the defender of the news media
might object at this point and say, "Give me a break, Murphy,
it's not the job of the reporter to speculate on causes. He's
just reporting the condition of the Iraqis, and many of them
really are upset about the gas lines, and now the price
hikes."
This possible objection wouldn't really
wash — since no news story would ever write about my fictitious
measles example without alluding to the generally accepted view
among doctors that vaccinations prevent measles outbreaks — but
it's even more untenable because the reporter does offer
some analysis:
Nevertheless, motorists here
frequently find themselves waiting in line for gas. Part of
the problem is an aging infrastructure and regular insurgent
attacks on pipelines. Also, cheap cars flooded into Iraq after
the U.S.-led invasion and the lifting of sanctions imposed by
the United Nations. Few new gas stations have opened to meet
the demand.
"The government should build more gas
stations," says Ahmad Khalil Ibrahim, 24, an engineer who had
been waiting five hours. "Thousands of cars are entering the
country."
And now we've come full circle. I just
knew that cheap imports were at least part of the
problem. Say what you will about the UN sanctions, but at least
they kept out the flood of gas-guzzling (and job-destroying)
cars! (Of course, if the protectionist logic is right, one
wonders why Iraq's economy wasn't booming since the first Gulf
War, but let's worry about that another day.)
In fairness, the writer does devote one
sentence to the theme of my essay, when he writes, "Increased
prices prompted some scattered protests when they first appeared
last month, but they haven't slackened demand or shortened
lines." The answer to this is pretty simple: the prices haven't
risen nearly enough. If Paul McCartney plays in a small stadium,
the place would sell out if tickets were priced at $5 each.
Doubling the price to $10 each wouldn't change that fact.
CONCLUSION
Steven Komarow's USA Today
piece demonstrates the economic illiteracy of the news media.
One needn't be a "right-wing zealot" to recognize the connection
between gas lines and price controls. I don't even expect a news
story to take a stand one way or the other. But it would be nice
if this story had contained a quotation from an economist. Can
you imagine if the news coverage of, say, an accident at a
nuclear power plant only interviewed concerned residents, and
didn't even allude to the opinions of physicists or other
relevant scientists?
I understand that (bad) economists are
largely to blame for the public perception that their discipline
isn't really objective and is ultimately a matter of politics.
Nonetheless the public perception is wrong. There are objective
laws in economics, including the law that says price ceilings
cause shortages. One can't interpret the world very well without
a knowledge of such basic principles, and one certainly
shouldn't write a story concerning gas lines while suffering
from such ignorance.
Robert
P. Murphy teaches economics at Hillsdale College. He prepared
the Home Study Course in Austrian Economics, which is
available for $350.
Dr. Murphy can be contacted at
Robert.Murphy@hillsdale.edu.