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Study #2 in B-flat, Op. 46 (2005) – Musical Composition and Video by G. Stolyarov II

Study #2 in B-flat, Op. 46 (2005) – Musical Composition and Video by G. Stolyarov II

The New Renaissance Hat
G. Stolyarov II
November 3, 2014
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This contemplative piano étude was composed by Mr. Stolyarov in 2005 in a mid-18th-century style. It generates the impression of a thought being analyzed using a multitude of related approaches, before being released into the external world.

This work was remastered using the SynthFont2 software, with the Evanescence 2 and GMR Basico 1.1 instrument packs.

Download the MP3 file of this composition here.

See the index of Mr. Stolyarov’s compositions, all available for free download, here.

The artwork is Mr. Stolyarov’s Elevated Fractal City, available for download here and here.

Remember to LIKE, FAVORITE, and SHARE this video in order to spread rational high culture to others.

How to Study for a Test: Principles from a Successful Test-Taker (2007) – Article by G. Stolyarov II

How to Study for a Test: Principles from a Successful Test-Taker (2007) – Article by G. Stolyarov II

The New Renaissance Hat
G. Stolyarov II
July 19, 2014
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Note from the Author: This essay was originally published on Associated Content (subsequently, Yahoo! Voices) in 2007.  I seek to preserve it as a valuable resource for readers, subsequent to the imminent closure of Yahoo! Voices. Therefore, this essay is being published directly on The Rational Argumentator for the first time.  
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~ G. Stolyarov II, July 19, 2014
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Perhaps you are looking to ace a standardized test. Or you want to get an A in an Advanced Placement (AP) high-school course or a challenging upper-level college course. Getting a high score on any test can be considered a skill in itself – apart from knowledge of the subject matter being tested. In fact, many people who are otherwise great learners and know a subject in detail tend not to score as well on tests as they could. If you are one of those people, here are some helpful suggestions as to how to improve your performance. These principles have helped me – among other things – to obtain an SAT score of 1580 (under the old system), an ACT score of 35, straight A grades throughout Advanced Placement courses and other classes in high school, as well as straight A grades in undergraduate college courses. I do not mention this to boast of my talents, as I do not consider myself to possess any exceptional abilities inaccessible to anyone reading this article. You can do what I did – honestly and genuinely – if you follow the proper techniques.
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First, remember that every instructor and testing organization has certain patterns or modes of functioning that you can expect and anticipate. Sometimes the teacher or organization might not even be aware of these modes of functioning. They are just the ways of doing things that seem natural to the teacher or the people in the organization: ways that fall in line with their habits, general personality, expectations of students, and evaluation of what is important in the subject matter. Nonetheless, these modes of functioning manifest themselves quite systematically, and they affect the tests designed by that instructor or organization.

There is no a prior way to know what these tendencies are; you will simply have to watch the teacher or organization for patterns. If you are dealing with a large institution that puts out standardized tests, you will have a substantial body of prior exams to analyze for patterns. Ask yourself: what kinds of questions tend to occur most often? What is the prevalent format of the questions? What are the skills that tend to be tested most frequently? Unless large departures from prior procedure are explicitly announced and publicized by the testing organization, you can be sure that future tests will be extremely similar to past tests. Having examined past tests sufficiently, you can be sure to have a vast pool of data at your fingertips, hinting to you what you should concentrate on most in your preparation.

If you are studying for a test from an instructor you know, you have other helpful indicators to guide you along in your studying. If the instructor emphasized certain topics in class repeatedly, you can be sure that they will be tested. If the instructor states that the test will be over a certain section of a book-but he did not cover all the material in that section – focus on the material that he did cover; he likely considers that material to be more relevant than the material he omitted. If in doubt, ask the instructor for additional clarification; you might not always get an answer, but you will be surprised at how receptive most teachers and professors are to clarifying what you will need to study.

Take detailed notes during the class lectures; do not rely on your memory alone to understand the class material. You can be following the instructor perfectly in class and forget everything he said a few days later. Having notes on everything he said will give you a reliable study aid for the exam-one of the most important aids you can get. The notes will help you recall anything you forget later; they are also an excellent way of figuring out what is likely to be tested. The night before the exam, review all the notes so that the material is fresh in your mind. In the meantime, try to develop a technique for taking notes more efficiently, so that you can record all the essential things an instructor says and writes on the board, at the rate at which he says and writes them. Learning a system of shorthand or developing your own will assist you greatly in obtaining accurate transcripts of classroom lectures.

Use your time efficiently; remember that it is possible for you to work really hard at learning interesting material that has little relevance to the exam. If you enjoy learning for learning’s sake, more power to you. I, too, like to accumulate knowledge for pleasure. However, do not consider time spent in this fashion as studying for the exam in question. The primary purpose of studying for a test is not to expand your knowledge base – though that may be a secondary consequence. It is, rather, to give you the highly limited and specific ability of answering the fairly narrow range of questions a given test might contain. If approached properly, this can be a far narrower task than the accumulation of general knowledge about anything; thus, it can be a task that can be accomplished in several hours as opposed to several months. Becoming more knowledgeable is not something you can effectively do the night before an exam; you should have been doing it since the beginning of the course or several months in advance of a standardized test. The purpose of intensive studying is much more immediate; it is to get you ready to face the specific challenges with which the test presents you. You probably already know a lot more about the subject being tested than you imagine. The key to success on the test is to be able to express your knowledge in the proper format.

In general, you will be well on your way to success if you approach at studying for the test not as a body of knowledge to be learned, but as a task to be completed. To understand this better, consider an analogy. Learning all you can about tables and actually making a table are two quite distinct endeavors. Studying for a test is more like making a table. If you do it right, you can not only be sure that you are spending your study time in a manner that will actually help you; you will eventually be able to accurately determine when you have studied enough and are prepared to take the exam – just like if you were making at table, you would know it if you were finished. Then you will be able to approach the exam confidently and rationally, knowing that you are well equipped to earn some of the highest grades possible.

What You Need to Know for Actuarial Exam P (2007) – Article by G. Stolyarov II

What You Need to Know for Actuarial Exam P (2007) – Article by G. Stolyarov II

The New Renaissance Hat
G. Stolyarov II
July 9, 2014
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This essay, originally written and published on Yahoo! Voices in 2007, has helped many actuarial candidates to study for Exam P and has garnered over 15,000 views to date. I seek to preserve it as a valuable resource for readers, subsequent to the imminent closure of Yahoo! Voices. Therefore, this essay is being published directly on The Rational Argumentator for the first time. While it has been over 7 years since I took and passed Actuarial Exam P, the fundamental advice in this article remains relevant, and I hope that it will assist many actuarial candidates for years to come. 

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~ G. Stolyarov II, July 9, 2014
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This is a companion article to “How to Study for Actuarial Exam P Without Paying for Materials“.

If you desire to become an actuary, then passing Exam P on Probability is your opportunity to enter the actuarial science profession and get a starting salary ranging of about $46,000 to about $67,000 per year. But the colossal number of topics listed on the syllabus may seem intimidating to many. Fortunately, you do not need to know all of them to get high grades on the exam. In May 2007, I passed Exam P with a the highest possible grade of 10 and can offer some advice on what you need to know in order to do well.

Of course, you need to know the basics of probability theory, including the addition and multiplication rules, mutually independent and dependent events, conditional probabilities, and Bayes’ Theorem. These topics are quite straightforward and do not require knowledge of calculus or any other kind of advanced mathematics; you need to be able to add, multiply, divide, and think logically about the situation presented in the problem — which will often be described in words. Visual aids, such as Venn Diagrams, contingency tables, and the use of union and intersection notation can be eminently helpful here. Try to master these general probability topics before moving on to the more difficult univariate and multivariate probability distributions.

Next, you will need to know several critically important univariate probability distributions, including some of their special properties. Fortunately, you do not need to know as many as the syllabus suggests.

The Society of Actuaries (SOA) recommends that you learn the “binomial, negative binomial, geometric, hypergeometric, Poisson, uniform, exponential, chi-square, beta, Pareto, lognormal, gamma, Weibull, and normal” distributions, but in fact the ones you will be tested on most extensively are just the binomial, negative binomial, geometric, Poisson, uniform, exponential, and normal. Make sure you know those seven in exhaustive detail, though, because much of the test concerns them. It is a good idea to memorize the formulas for these distributions’ probability density functions, survival functions, means, and variances. Also be able to do computations with the normal distribution using the provided table of areas under the normal curve. Knowledge of calculus, integration, and analysis of discrete finite and infinite sums is necessary to master the univariate probability distributions on Exam P.

Also pay attention to applications of univariate probability distributions to the insurance sector; know how to solve every kind of problem which involves deductibles and claim limits, because a significant portion of the problems on the test will employ these concepts. Study the SOA’s past exam questions and solutions and read the study note on “Risk and Insurance” to get extensive exposure to these applications of probability theory.

The multivariate probability concepts on Exam P are among the most challenging. They require a solid grasp of double integrals and firm knowledge of joint, marginal, and conditional probability distributions – as well as the ability to derive any one of these kinds of distributions from the others. Moreover, many of the problems on the test involve moment-generating functions and their properties – a subject that deserves extensive study and practice in its own right.

Furthermore, make sure that you have a solid grasp of the concepts of expectation, variance, standard deviation, covariance, and correlation. Indeed, try to master the problems involving variances and covariances of multiple random variables; these problems become easy once you make a habit of doing them; solving them quickly and effectively will save a lot of time on the exam and boost your grade. Also make sure that you study the Central Limit Theorem and are able to do problems involving it; this is not a difficult concept once you are conversant with the normal distribution, and mastering Central Limit problems can go a long way to enhance your performance as well.

Studying the topics mentioned here can focus your preparation for Exam P and enable you to practice effectively and confidently. Remember, though, that this is still a lot of material. You would be well advised to begin studying for the test at least three months in advance and to study consistently on a daily basis. Practice often with every kind of problem so as to keep your memory and skills fresh. Best wishes on the exam.

How to Study for Actuarial Exam P Without Paying for Materials (2007) – Article by G. Stolyarov II

How to Study for Actuarial Exam P Without Paying for Materials (2007) – Article by G. Stolyarov II

The New Renaissance Hat
G. Stolyarov II
July 9, 2014
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This essay, originally written and published on Yahoo! Voices in 2007, is my most-viewed article and second-most-viewed work of all time, at over 81,600 views to date. I seek to preserve it as a valuable resource for readers, subsequent to the imminent closure of Yahoo! Voices. Therefore, this essay is being published directly on The Rational Argumentator for the first time. While it has been over 7 years since I took and passed Actuarial Exam P, the fundamental advice in this article remains relevant, and I hope that it will assist many actuarial candidates for years to come. 

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~ G. Stolyarov II, July 9, 2014
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Exam P on Probability, offered by the Society of Actuaries (formerly in conjunction with the Casualty Actuarial Society, which referred to it as Exam 1), is the gateway to the actuarial profession. Those who pass the exam can obtain entry-level jobs as actuaries, with salaries ranging from about $46,000 to about $67,000 per year. After some rigorous studying, I passed this examination in May 2007 with a grade of 10 – the highest possible. Here are some study materials that can help you obtain top marks on Exam P without paying a cent.
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The breadth of material listed on the syllabus for this test is extensive, and many of the topics are tremendously complex in themselves. Fortunately not all of the topics listed are actually tested, and the kinds of questions that are asked on the exam are generally more reasonable and straightforward than the ones present in the recommended readings.

As I found out through personal experience, you do not need to spend money at all in purchasing study materials for this exam. Virtually everything you need can already be found online. The most crucial study aid is the list of sample questions from past exams, generously provided by the Society of Actuaries. Along with these questions, you will also find a list of step-by-step solutions which will enable you to check your work. For successful performance on the test, it is essential to be able to successfully solve these problems on your own and to know why you obtained the solutions you did. The problems on the exam are remarkably similar to the ones in the sample questions, so you should do well on your exam if you can solve the problems from prior tests.

In the course of my own studying, I made the mistake of purchasing Michael A. Bean’s Probability: The Science of Uncertainty: a book which does an extremely poor job at explaining the mathematical concepts required for the actuarial exam, because it already presupposes the reader’s expert knowledge of such concepts. Too often, crucial explanations and proofs are omitted from this book, to be left as “exercises to the reader”– quite a challenge for a reader who simply seeks a basic grasp of the subject!

Furthermore, the exercises in Bean’s book are not conducive to learning the essentials of the probability concepts discussed; these problems are instead so convoluted and laden with unnecessary complications as to baffle even the expert mathematician. Exam P itself is much more reasonable than that; the problems often require some thinking and multiple steps, but you will not be required to pull brilliant, esoteric insights out of thin air, as Bean’s exercises require you to do. To add to the trouble, Bean does not provide answers in the back of the book for most of his problems — thus disabling you from checking your work.

The best textbook by far for actuarial students preparing to take Exam P is Marcel B. Finan’s A Probability Course for the Actuaries, which you can download for free in pdf format. It starts with the very basics of set theory and probability and gradually works its way toward the most advanced concepts to be tested. Every section focuses on a different key idea and builds on the previous topics; there are also instructive detailed proofs, examples, and practice problems to guide you along the way. This book is available to the public and has an immense wealth of excellent resources. In preparing for the exam, I did some work for Dr. Finan in making the answer keys to the exercises in this book, which I made available in 2008.

With focus, determination, and discipline, you can do well on Exam P and achieve entry into the fascinating and lucrative world of actuarial science. And with these excellent free study materials, all you will need to invest into your education is the $225 exam fee, your time, and your effort.

Study #1 in C, Op. 6 (2001) – Video by G. Stolyarov II

Study #1 in C, Op. 6 (2001) – Video by G. Stolyarov II

This short but dynamic work by G. Stolyarov II illustrates the essential nature of a melody’s directed and structured forward movement in a musical composition.

This version is played in Finale 2011 Software using the Steinway Grand Piano instrument.

Download the MP3 file of this composition here.

See the index of Mr. Stolyarov’s compositions, all available for free download, here.

The artwork is Mr. Stolyarov’s Abstract Orderism Fractal 15, available for download here and here.

Remember to LIKE, FAVORITE, and SHARE this video in order to spread rational high culture to others.

Organic Shmorganic – Article by Charles N. Steele

Organic Shmorganic – Article by Charles N. Steele

The New Renaissance Hat
Charles N. Steele
October 6, 2012
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A study by researchers from Stanford University of “organic” food was unable to find any health benefits, prompting a rant from NYT’s Roger Cohen against organic food.  Finally, finally, finally!  Cohen on track, rather than off the rails!Many years ago I heard Bruce Ames, a cancer researcher and head of College of Public Health at Stanford give a lecture in which he discredited the health claims of the “organic” movement and warned that it would raise costs without returning corresponding benefits.  His main fear was that this would lead people to eat fewer vegetables rather than more.  The second most important thing people can do to avoid cancer is eat more vegetables, he explained (stopping smoking is  number 1).  He based this in part on his own research with with carcinogenic properties of manmade pesticides and naturally occurring ones; the naturally occurring ones were every bit as bad and as prevalent in vegetables, and neither posed a meaningful risk in his research.  (Obviously misuse of pesticides could be a different matter.)  The new Stanford study was unable to find the superior health benefits attributed to “organic” foods, corroborating Ames’ argument.

I’ve also heard agriculture experts discuss the alleged environmental harmfulness of “non-organic” agriculture, something not covered in the Stanford study.  Again, the alleged environmental benefits of “organic” are mostly hype, and in some cases it can be worse.  Chemical fertilizers in particular deserve none of the slander that’s directed at them.  (Again, use them incorrectly and you can poison things… but that’s also true with “organic”.)

I’ve been putting “organic” in quotation marks, because the word itself always meant something different: it refers to carbon-based compounds.  That is, that’s what it meant until the word was grabbed by – let’s be honest – hippie food faddists.  “Organic” was changed to mean “simple, healthful, close to ‘nature,'” (another doubtful word), all utterly unsubstantiated claims.  Next yuppies and similar types jumped on the bandwagon, because it made them feel good about themselves “saving the planet and eating healthier and sidestepping ‘corporate agriculture,’ etc.”

This is a great example of the fundamental role of subjective utility in economic value.  Belief in “organic” is essentially religious faith, unfounded in evidence.  What makes “organic” more valuable is consumer demand, based on perceived, imagined characteristics, not some physical measurable properties.  That’s why big food corporations got into the act. They were slow to enter, and when they did, they were entirely responding to demand.  They would prefer not to produce this way, because it is costlier, but so long as consumers demand it, you give them what they want, or you lose market share.  There’s quite an irony here. Anti-capitalists frequently accuse “big business” of manufacturing consumer preferences in order to manipulate people and reap profits, yet the whole “organic” movement was manufactured by a motley collection of  anticapitalist  mystics from both left and right.

I heard NPR cover this story, and the  reporter concluded that the whole “organic” thing must have been a conspiracy by “big agriculture” (another dubious concept) to hoodwink us and get our money… a completely backwards argument, as most farmers, big or little, would prefer less costly, easier, more productive modern agricultural methods.  It’s quite common to be producing “organic” crops, meat, etc. and have some small step go wrong and have the “organic” label be lost – and even though the stuff is perfectly good, it now can’t be sold for enough to cover costs.  I’ve had farmers tell me about this, and have read of many more examples.

“Organic shmorganic” indeed!

Dr. Charles N. Steele is the Herman and Suzanne Dettwiler Chair in Economics and Associate Professor at Hillsdale College in Hillsdale, Michigan. His research interests include economics of transition and institutional change, economics of uncertainty, and health economics.  He received his Ph.D. from New York University in 1997, and has subsequently taught economics at the graduate and undergraduate levels in China, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and the United States.  He has also worked as a private consultant in insurance design and review.

Dr. Steele also maintains a blog, Unforeseen Contingencies.